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Re: Knowledge discovery


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Posted by Reilly Atkinson on December 08, 1999 at 19:16:32:

In Reply to: Knowledge discovery posted by Denham on December 08, 1999 at 12:47:25:

Denham -- With all due respect, there's just no way your theoretical analysis approach can actually work. I know, I've tried it as have many others. Our analysis tools, including the vastly overrated neural networks, are not up to handle the job of understanding chains of real decisions. Our intuition is not sufficient to capture all the relevant variables and characteristics. Many financial people cannot fully articulate their strategies, which means great uncertainty in what market conditions are at play, lag structures are at best barely known,... Those few times when people have made some real progress in understanding the market have resulted in Nobel Prizes in Economics. Your facile overview trivializes the work of many very bright and capable people, many of whom have been working on this type of problem for years.

I'm a court certified expert(survey analysis), and mny of my friends are experts. Some like to share, some don't -- and, great surprise, the propensity to share varied with circumstances. I've known a few who are as you describe, but most are not. After all, they are human.

I am astonished at your lack of condemnation of the idea of stealing the mental lifeblood of financial, or any, workers. If this stealing scheme ever transpired, you could well be a candidate for a criminal conspiracy indictment, or considered an accessory after the fact. Honesty, intellectual or otherwise, is very serious business. If I were to make a comment about stealing, and the pros and cons of using illegally gained information, I would be out of business in a second, and deservedly so.
Reilly Atkinson


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